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Episode 663: Your Mostly Excellent Emails
Date April 23, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about defining team success, four-man outfields, pitcher offensive futility, baseball’s Star Wars trailer moments, and more. Topics * Predicting in-game events * Javier Baez & stat line necessary to stay in the majors * Four-man outfields * Must-see baseball moments * Pitcher hitting success * Defining team success Intro Iggy Pop, "Success" Banter * Ben and Sam discuss how they introduce each other at the start of the show, and Ben notes that in a 'Freaky Friday' scenario where they switch bodies, he would want to do Sam's squeaky laugh. * Episode 657 follow-up: Several listeners wrote in with additional fan section names. They were: the Duck Pond (Brandon Duckworth), Thome's Homies (Jim Thome), The Wolfpack (Randy Wolf), Person's People (Robert Person), and the Buhner Boneyard (Jay Buhner). * One listener suggested that Steve Cishek have a fan area called the 'C Section'. Email Questions * Steve: "Has everything in baseball happened before? I was thinking about Sam's idea for real-time win probability incorporating all of the Statcast data and how feasible it is. That isn't to say the analytical and computing power can't do it, but I wonder if it can be done at all. That is, you'd make predictions based on precedent. If the full set of actions is defined (eg: poker, only so many card permutations) then we can draw on those previous events to predict the future. If the action set is nearly limitless, akin to a chess game going off book after so many moves because that game has never happened before, can we predict the outcome? Could we cobble together research on individual aspects of a play (batted ball data, fielder positions, runner speeds, etc.) to make one reliable prediction?" * David: "Let's say Javier Baez came up for a full season of baseball and did no worse or better than last year. Let's say he has almost 600 at-bats, scores 72 runs, hits 25 homers, 60 RBIs and 13 stolen bases, plays good shortstop and second base and hits .170. Are those stats worth a starting shortstop or second base position in MLB? Could anyone have stats like that and play for 10 years while hitting below .200?" * Justin: "Let's say Alex Rios is out for more than a couple weeks. Omar Infante is still playing at his current level. At what point would running a three-man infield of Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, and Mike Moustakas, in a permanent shift with a four-man outfield of Alex Gordon, Jarrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain, and Terrence Gore/Paulo Orlando with one playing short behind the opening on the infield be considered completely outlandish? Sal Perez and all three infielders are legitimate gold glove contenders as are Gordon and Cain. Orlando seems to be an above average fielder and Dyson and Gore are so fast that they can make up for mistakes. How insane is this?" * Eric (San Francisco, CA): "Last week I made up an excuse to leave an important meeting at work when someone texted me that the new Star Wars trailer was out. At that moment, nothing else mattered to me. So my question, what would be the baseball equivalent for you? What is the one on-field thing that gets you to a TV faster? Let's keep it to the feasible so no 'aliens abduct the Cubs'." * Miles (North Dakota): "In sports we often hear that Team X has not won a championship in 10 years and that is such a long gap of success as if they are supposed to win at least every five years or so. How is success and disappointment gauged for baseball teams since there are 30 teams? Should a team be satisfied with winning twice in 30 years, showing they're ahead of the curve? Or is every season an entity itself with one team receiving a passing grade and 29 failing? If only one team can win per year, what is the appropriate standard of satisfaction that your team is succeeding? Are playoff appearances enough? Since the Giants have won 3 of the last 5 championships when is the next time they should be expected to win before it becomes a problem?" Play Index * It has been five years since the last time a pitcher got four hits in a game. Sam uses the batting game finder to look up other instances of this happening. * In the 1970s and 80s there was a 15 year gap between four-hit games by a pitcher. * There were 11 three-hit games by pitchers in 2013. This was most since 2001. * It has been almost 20 years since a reliever had three hits in a single game. Notes * Ben and Sam guess the career OPS+ (68) and earnings ($3.3 million) of Chris Getz. * Ben and Sam think the Royals would be better off having a two-man outfield and placing an extra infielder. They agree that Coors Field would be a good place to try a four-man outfield. * Sam wants to see a five home-run game, 21 strikeout game, or Bryce Harper or Andrelton Simmons pitching. * In Episode 471 Ben and Sam discussed the players they tune in to watch on MLB.TV. The probability of a five home-run game was discussed in Episode 503. * This season pitchers have a -36 wRC+ in over 500 plate appearances. * In Episode 270 Ben and Sam discussed when they thought every team would have won a World Series. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 663: Your Mostly Excellent Emails * The Best Pitches Thrown This Week by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes